Prediction Markets Trader

DRW is a major Chicago-based proprietary trading firm founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, specializing in diversified, technology-driven market-making and quantitative trading across asset classes including fixed income, options, derivatives, commodities, energy, equities, FX, and cryptocurrency. DRW is building out a dedicated prediction markets desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. As a Prediction Markets Trader, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction trading strategies in binary event contracts. You will manage a live portfolio, targeting consistent positive expectancy through market making, microstructure exploitation, cross-platform arbitrage, and statistical models. This role requires genuine, demonstrated passion for prediction markets, strong quantitative reasoning, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile, event-resolution-driven environments. Core Responsibilities: - Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket (CLOB/Gamma/Subgraph APIs) and Kalshi (FIX/WebSocket/REST). - Execute strategies including market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage, cross-platform arbitrage, and statistical pairs/mean reversion. - Develop and backtest models using historical tick data, Bayesian probability updates, and machine learning for fair-value estimation. - Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure, including API integrations, order engines, and anomaly detection. Required Qualifications: - Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent. - Strong programming skills: Python (pandas, NumPy, backtesting). - Solid foundation in probability, statistics, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods. - Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and/or Kalshi APIs) or closely related domains (options, binary events, sports betting). - Demonstrated interest in prediction markets through personal trading, studying market mechanics, building models, or similar activities. Highly Valued (but not strictly required): - Prior profitable trading experience in prediction markets, options, or related markets, whether personal or professional. - Familiarity with blockchain/DeFi tools (ethers.js, Polygon RPC, USDC wallets). - Experience with low-latency systems, FIX protocol, or Web3 integrations. - Track record of building and backtesting quantitative models with real historical data. - Knowledge of prediction market categories such as politics, macroeconomics, climate, and sports. Who We’re Looking For: We are especially interested in exceptionally sharp, self-motivated individuals — including strong campus hires and new graduates — who are obsessed with prediction markets and can demonstrate clear, substantive engagement with the space. If you’ve been actively trading Polymarket/Kalshi, analyzing resolutions, building personal models, or following the ecosystem closely, we want to talk to you. Apply With: - Resume - Cover letter detailing your interest in prediction markets, with specific examples such as trades you’ve made, resolutions you’ve studied, models you’ve built, or protocols you follow - GitHub, personal blog, or portfolio links showing relevant work Applications are reviewed on a rolling basis. Strong candidates will receive a technical screen, strategy discussion, and live coding/modeling exercise focused on real prediction market scenarios. The annual base salary range for this position is $175,000 to $200,000 depending on the candidate’s experience, qualifications, and relevant skill set. The position is also eligible for an annual discretionary bonus. In addition, DRW offers a comprehensive suite of employee benefits including group medical, pharmacy, dental and vision insurance, 401k (with discretionary employer match), short and long-term disability, life and AD&D insurance, health savings accounts, and flexible spending accounts. For more information about DRW's processing activities and our use of job applicants' data, please view our Privacy Notice at https://drw.com/privacy-notice. California residents, please review the California Privacy Notice for information about certain legal rights at https://drw.com/california-privacy-notice. #LI-GV1